Smithsonian Tropical Research institute, July 9, 2010
Story: S. Joseph Wright
Edited by M Alvarado and ML Calderon
The Five Drivers That Will Determine the Future
Five anthropogenic drivers— land use change, wood extraction, hunting,atmospheric change,climate change— will largely determine the future of tropical forests. The geographic scope and intensity of these five drivers are in flux. Contemporary land use change includes deforestation (Í64,000 km2 yr-1 for the entire tropical forest biome) and natural forests regenerating on abandoned land (Í21,500 km2 yr-1 with just 29% of the biome evaluated). Commercial logging is shifting rapidly from Southeast Asia to Africa and South America, but local fuelwood consumption continues to constitute 71% of all wood production. Pantropical rates of net deforestation are declining even as secondary and logged forests increasingly replace old-growth forests. Hunters reduce frugivore, granivore and browser abundances in most forests. This alters seed dispersal, seed and seedling survival, and hence the species composition and spatial template of plant regeneration.Tropical governments have responded to these local threats by protecting 7% of all land for the strict conservation of nature. Protected status often fails to stop hunters and is impotent against atmospheric and climate change. There are increasing reports of stark changes in the structure and dynamics of protected tropical forests. Four broad classes of mechanisms might contribute to these changes. Predictions are developed to distinguish among these mechanisms. You may read about them in: Wright, Joseph S. 2010. "The future of tropical forests." Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1195 (The Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology): 1-27, which may be obtained from calderom@si.edu
Reprinted from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Panama; in my continued effort to keep the need for conservation and awareness of our valued Rainforests in the news.
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